Unemployment was 85 762 persons (s.a. and including those on labour market measures) in July, nearly unchanged from last month. It was somewhat better than we had expected (86 300). The unadjusted rate was 2.8% in line with our forecast and consensus. Registered unemployment has stabilized the last months after an increase by 3-4000 persons at the start of the year. Norges Bank forecast a very moderate increase in registered unemployment from 2013 to 2014. We still think it is too early for Norges Bank to draw any conclusion after a few months with a sideways movement. Norges Bank will most likely conclude that registered unemployment is about as expected, but that LFS unemployment is lower. A September cut seems less and less likely, but remember next week we will have July inflation.
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