? LFS unemployment fell unexpectedly – again ? Now points to lower unemployment than Norges Bank forecast ? Not that important to Norges Bank , but if anything reduces the chance of a September rate cut Contrary to both consensus and Nordea?s forecast, LFS unemployment fell from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. Employment grew by 5000 persons while labour supply grew by 3000. LFS unemployment is volatile and the main point to make out of this figure is that the 3.7% we saw in March was an outlier. Unemployment seems to have stabilized at about 3 ½% after rising from 3% in spring 2012 to 3 ½% late 2012. LFS unemployment is now about ¼%point lower than forecasted by Norges Bank (average for 2013). We will not make too much of this, but if anything it increases the likelihood of unchanged rates in September. Still Friday?s registered unemployment figures are more important to Norges Bank?s view. Statistic Norway?s Q2 manufacturing business survey was unchanged from last month and points to about sideways movement in production, but possibly to higher employment. Oil related manufacturing industries, which is labor-intensive, is doing very well. All in all figures that counteract the rather gloomy picture of the Norwegian economy given in the media lately.
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